By Alex Drummond, Editor-in-Chief · Last updated May 06, 2026 · Fact-checked by Maya Chen
The question of expected winnings is the single most common one we receive in the OntarioPoker editorial mailbox. This page uses iGaming Ontario aggregate data to give an honest answer, stake level by stake level.
The Aggregate Picture
iGaming Ontario's monthly market reports show that Ontario's six regulated peer-to-peer poker rooms combined generate roughly C$6 million per month in gross gaming revenue on C$150 million of wagers. That is a 4 per cent hold across the market as a whole. The 4 per cent is captured as rake; the remaining 96 per cent of handle is redistributed among players.
What That Means for Players
Because poker is a peer-to-peer game, the 4 per cent aggregate hold comes out of player-versus-player transactions rather than from a house edge. A break-even player loses the rake they contribute. A winning player must beat the field by more than the rake they pay.
By stake level
At micro stakes (C$0.01/C$0.02 to C$0.05/C$0.10), typical winning-player rates are 5 to 10 big blinds per 100 hands after rake. At low stakes (C$0.25/C$0.50 to C$1/C$2), winning rates tail off to 2 to 5 bb/100. At mid and high stakes, winning rates are a fraction of a big blind per hundred hands.
Time Commitment and Volatility
A typical Ontario winning player at low stakes generates maybe C$100 to C$200 per month of expected value at 20 hours of play. Variance is substantial: 70 per cent of months fall within plus or minus three buy-ins of expectation.
Honest Expectations
Most Ontario players lose money over any given year. This is not a negative judgement; it is the nature of a rake-funded game. Players who win long-term do so through skill advantage, game selection, volume, and strict bankroll management. Anyone telling you online poker is a get-rich path is selling something.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I make a living playing Ontario online poker?
A very small number of Ontario players do. The overwhelming majority lose money net of rake over any twelve-month period. Professional play is a business with a high failure rate.
What's a realistic monthly target for a winning low-stakes player?
For a typical winning low-stakes player putting in 20 hours per week, C$200 to C$500 per month is within reach with disciplined play. Variance means individual months will fall well outside this range.